The Nostradamus Syndrome

By Paul Flower on Jan 7, 09 10:32 AM

In an entirely predictable fashion this month is traditionally dominated by writers & seers making various prophecies for what might happen to us all in the next 12 months. The only reliable prediction is that by the end of the year we'll all have forgotten the bulk of the predictions that were made.

A few weeks back I read that 2009 would be one of the hottest years on record in the UK. Aside from the fact that we can barely trust our weather forecasters to get it right over a 72 hour period, the problem with this type of prediction is that we're unable to check it. I don't imagine anyone reading this blog will be noting down the temperature on a daily basis and checking it against their records for the previous years. I also seem to recall a similar prediction around 12 months ago - long before we waded through the damp squib of summer 2008.

The other types of predictions - best films, celebs to watch out for, new bands, etc - are more like well-educated-guesswork. People 'in the know' know things that most of us don't - or couldn't care less about. It's in their interests to know which films, TV shows or albums are due for release, what's been big in other territories (particularly the U.S.) and what's being given the biggest hype in the coming months.

For example as 2008 dawned it was easy to predict the success of Duffy & Adele because we all knew that the record labels were looking to replicate the chart fortunes of Amy Winehouse. By December 07 both Duffy & Adele had recorded the bulk of their albums and were being touted by various PRs to all the key music writers and radio presenters. On that basis it was clear that both acts would be treated as 'priorities' by their individual labels, making the task of prophesising their success a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.

When artists, films and TV shows are turned into 'priority' projects in this way it effectively means that the best available resources and manpower of their parent companies will be invested in them; some indication of the levels of success expected, if not guaranteed.

Of course there are numerous instances when the hype doesn't match with public interest, but don't expect writers like me to remind you that they tipped some donkeys - we'll only be reminiscing about our strokes of prophetic genius by the time 2009 draws to a close.

There is also the case of the self-fulfilling prophesy. No writer, presenter or imagined guru wants to look foolish. So, if we've tipped someone to make it big then we're also likely to give them all the support we can muster. Until such time that we create an out-of-control monster who no longer communicates with pond scum like us or, perhaps even-worse, the act concerned disappears without trace from the public eye but still nags us for coverage. Red Shoes.jpg

In the mid-80's I was in a position where, being regularly involved with local music & musicians, I was consistently recommending acts to major labels. The bulk of these acts - the likes of Club 21, The Wardrobe, Pavlov Dogs, Pig Bros (great video below), Red Shoes (pictured) to name a few - were criminally overlooked, but I still back my judgement. Those acts didn't get the breaks or were just ahead of their time. A few others that I touted - The Wonder Stuff , Pop Will Eat Itself, and The Mighty Lemon Drops - were more fortunate.

Backing music acts is not a route to easy rewards - as the dwindling number of NME readers will probably demonstrate. The press & pundits need a decent turnover of acts to keep their products selling, but the public mood is not that easy to forecast or manipulate. This is another reason why the music revolution we hear so much about is only half-way complete - we'll only have won when reality stars no longer top the charts with ease.

So, what can be prophesised which is different from the norm or the eminently predictable? Obviously in a recession you will find brands and companies trying ever more desperate routes to your purse - in 2009 you will find that price-related promotions are ever more the key. You probably knew this already from the quantity of sales-related TV ads cluttering up the channels.

Similarly it wouldn't take a Nostradamus type to tell you that music retailing on the high street is dead. Even before Zavvi went under you'd struggle to find CDs in amongst the games and DVDs at most shops. The unfortunate problem for most is that even at their best prices the likes of play and amazon are still cheaper. There has to be a role for specialists and this will always be the case - we are ever more in need of arbiters, someone to point the way. In many ways, this column has been entirely about that point.

Another strong prophesy I can make is one that always holds true, whatever the year: The amount of time allocated for any task will be approximately half of the actual time required to complete it. Additionally it will take at least ten times the amount of time allocated to actually begin the task itself.

And my final garbled prediction? You'll read a lot of garbage and misinformation posing as opinion this year, which will be particularly true if you carry on reading this blog.

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